Child Mortality in England During the First 2 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, child mortality in England was the lowest on record, but if this trend will continue, or if unrecognized morbidity during the first year of the pandemic will manifest as increased deaths over the next few years is unclear. Objective: To examine the risks and patterns of childhood deaths before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study includes all child deaths in England from April 1, 2019, to March 31, 2022. Exposures: The year of death. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome measure is risk of death. Results: Of the 9983 child deaths reported during the study period, 9872 (98.8%) were linked to demographic and population data with 3409 deaths (34.5%) between April 2019 and March 2020, 3035 (30.7%) between April 2020 and March 2021, and 3428 (34.7%) between April 2021 and March 2022. Most deaths occurred in children who were younger than 1 year (6257 of 9872 [62.7%]), the majority were male (5534 of 9760 [56.7%]), and lived in an urban area (8766 of 9872 [88.8%]). The risk of death was lower between April 2020 and March 2021 (relative risk [RR], 0.89 [95% CI, 0.84-0.93]), but not between April 2021 and March 2022 (RR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.95-1.05]) when compared with April 2019 to March 2020. A population attributable risk (PAF) of 4.0% (95% CI, 0.1%-6.8%) suggested fewer deaths occurred during the whole 3-year period than expected. Reductions were seen in risk of dying by infection (PAF, 22.8% [95% CI, 8.2%-37.0%]) and underlying disease (PAF, 13.3% [95% CI, 8.1%-18.8%]), but there was evidence of an increasing risk of death by trauma (PAF, 14.7% [95% CI, 2.9%-25.2%]). Any reduction in the risk of death was greater in rural areas than in urban areas (RR, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.63-0.85] vs RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86-0.95]) and was not seen in children older than 9 years. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, there was a significant reduction in all-cause child mortality during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021), which returned to close to prepandemic levels the following year (2021-2022). However, there was a net reduction in deaths despite this, with 4% fewer deaths during the 3-year period than would have been expected from the 2019 to 2020 risks. The reductions were largest in rural areas and in children younger than 10 years.

Which children and young people are at higher risk of severe disease and death after hospitalisation with SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people: A systematic review and individual patient meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe pre-existing factors associated with severe disease, primarily admission to critical care, and death secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalised children and young people (CYP), within a systematic review and individual patient meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched Pubmed, European PMC, Medline and Embase for case series and cohort studies published between 1st January 2020 and 21st May 2021 which included all CYP admitted to hospital with ≥ 30 CYP with SARS-CoV-2 or ≥ 5 CYP with PIMS-TS or MIS-C. Eligible studies contained (1) details of age, sex, ethnicity or co-morbidities, and (2) an outcome which included admission to critical care, mechanical invasive ventilation, cardiovascular support, or death. Studies reporting outcomes in more restricted groupings of co-morbidities were eligible for narrative review. We used random effects meta-analyses for aggregate study-level data and multilevel mixed effect models for IPD data to examine risk factors (age, sex, comorbidities) associated with admission to critical care and death. Data shown are odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI).PROSPERO: CRD42021235338. FINDINGS: 83 studies were included, 57 (21,549 patients) in the meta-analysis (of which 22 provided IPD) and 26 in the narrative synthesis. Most studies had an element of bias in their design or reporting. Sex was not associated with critical care or death. Compared with CYP aged 1-4 years (reference group), infants (aged <1 year) had increased odds of admission to critical care (OR 1.63 (95% CI 1.40-1.90)) and death (OR 2.08 (1.57-2.86)). Odds of death were increased amongst CYP over 10 years (10-14 years OR 2.15 (1.54-2.98); >14 years OR 2.15 (1.61-2.88)).The number of comorbid conditions was associated with increased odds of admission to critical care and death for COVID-19 in a step-wise fashion. Compared with CYP without comorbidity, odds ratios for critical care admission were: 1.49 (1.45-1.53) for 1 comorbidity; 2.58 (2.41-2.75) for 2 comorbidities; 2.97 (2.04-4.32) for ≥3 comorbidities. Corresponding odds ratios for death were: 2.15 (1.98-2.34) for 1 comorbidity; 4.63 (4.54-4.74) for 2 comorbidities and 4.98 (3.78-6.65) for ≥3 comorbidities. Odds of admission to critical care were increased for all co-morbidities apart from asthma (0.92 (0.91-0.94)) and malignancy (0.85 (0.17-4.21)) with an increased odds of death in all co-morbidities considered apart from asthma. Neurological and cardiac comorbidities were associated with the greatest increase in odds of severe disease or death. Obesity increased the odds of severe disease and death independently of other comorbidities. IPD analysis demonstrated that, compared to children without co-morbidity, the risk difference of admission to critical care was increased in those with 1 comorbidity by 3.61% (1.87-5.36); 2 comorbidities by 9.26% (4.87-13.65); ≥3 comorbidities 10.83% (4.39-17.28), and for death: 1 comorbidity 1.50% (0.00-3.10); 2 comorbidities 4.40% (-0.10-8.80) and ≥3 co-morbidities 4.70 (0.50-8.90). INTERPRETATION: Hospitalised CYP at greatest vulnerability of severe disease or death with SARS-CoV-2 infection are infants, teenagers, those with cardiac or neurological conditions, or 2 or more comorbid conditions, and those who are obese. These groups should be considered higher priority for vaccination and for protective shielding when appropriate. Whilst odds ratios were high, the absolute increase in risk for most comorbidities was small compared to children without underlying conditions. FUNDING: RH is in receipt of a fellowship from Kidney Research UK (grant no. TF_010_20171124). JW is in receipt of a Medical Research Council Fellowship (Grant No. MR/R00160X/1). LF is in receipt of funding from Martin House Children's Hospice (there is no specific grant number for this). RV is in receipt of a grant from the National Institute of Health Research to support this work (grant no NIHR202322). Funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Risk factors for PICU admission and death among children and young people hospitalized with COVID-19 and PIMS-TS in England during the first pandemic year.

Identifying which children and young people (CYP) are most vulnerable to serious infection due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is important to guide protective interventions. To address this question, we used data for all hospitalizations in England among 0-17 year olds from 1 February 2019 to 31 January 2021. We examined how sociodemographic factors and comorbidities might be risk factors for pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission among hospitalizations due to the following causes: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and pediatric inflammatory multi-system syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS) in the first pandemic year (2020-2021); hospitalizations due to all other non-traumatic causes in 2020-2021; hospitalizations due to all non-traumatic causes in 2019-2020; and hospitalizations due to influenza in 2019-2020. Risk of PICU admission and death from COVID-19 or PIMS-TS in CYP was very low. We identified 6,338 hospitalizations with COVID-19, of which 259 were admitted to a PICU and eight CYP died. We identified 712 hospitalizations with PIMS-TS, of which 312 were admitted to a PICU and fewer than five CYP died. Hospitalizations with COVID-19 and PIMS-TS were more common among males, older CYP, those from socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods and those who were of non-White ethnicity (Black, Asian, Mixed or Other). The odds of PICU admission were increased in CYP younger than 1 month old and decreased among 15-17 year olds compared to 1-4 year olds with COVID-19; increased in older CYP and females with PIMS-TS; and increased for Black compared to White ethnicity in patients with COVID-19 and PIMS-TS. Odds of PICU admission in COVID-19 were increased for CYP with comorbidities and highest for CYP with multiple medical problems. Increases in odds of PICU admission associated with different comorbidities in COVID-19 showed a similar pattern to other causes of hospitalization examined and, thus, likely reflect background vulnerabilities. These findings identify distinct risk factors associated with PICU admission among CYP with COVID-19 or PIMS-TS that might aid treatment and prevention strategies.

Child mortality in England during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the relative risk (RR) of childhood deaths across the whole of England during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with a similar period of 2019. DESIGN: This work is based on data collected by the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD). Deaths from 1 April 2020 until 31 March 2021 (2020-2021) were compared with those from the same period of 2019-2020. RR and excess mortality were derived for deaths in 2020-2021 vs 2019-2020. SETTING: All deaths reported to NCMD in England of children under 18 years of age, between April 2019 and March 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 6490 deaths of children, under the age of 18 years, reported to the NCMD over the study period. RESULTS: Children had similar demographics in the 2 years. There were 356 (198-514) fewer deaths in 2020-2021 than in 2019-2020 (RR 0.90 (0.85 to 0.94), p<0.001). Deaths from infection (RR 0.49 (0.38 to 0.64)) and from other underlying medical conditions (RR 0.75 (0.68 to 0.82)) were lower in 2020-2021 than 2019-2020, and weak evidence (RR 0.50 (0.23 to 1.07), p=0.074) that this was also true of deaths from substance abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood mortality in England during the first year of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was lower than expected, with over 300 fewer deaths than the preceding 12 months. The greatest reduction was in children less than 10 years old. It is important that we learn from this effect that potentially offers alternative ways to improve the outcome for the most vulnerable children in our society.

Child suicide rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in England.

BACKGROUND: There is concern about the impact of COVID-19, and the control measures to prevent the spread, on children's mental health. The aim of this work was to identify if there had been a rise of childhood suicide during the COVID pandemic. METHOD: Using data from England's National Child Mortality Database (NCMD) the characteristics and rates of children dying of suicide between April and December 2020 were compared with those in 2019. In a subset (1st January to 17th May 2020) further characteristics and possible contributing factors were obtained. RESULTS: A total of 193 likely childhood deaths by suicide were reported. There was no evidence overall suicide deaths were higher in 2020 than 2019 (RR 1.09 (0.80-1.48), p = 0.584) but weak evidence that the rate in the first lockdown period (April to May 2020) was higher than the corresponding period in 2019 (RR 1.56 (0.86-2.81), p = 0.144). Characteristics of individuals were similar between periods. Social restrictions (e.g. to education), disruption to care and support services, tensions at home and isolation appeared to be contributing factors. LIMITATIONS: As child suicides are fortunately rare, the analysis is based on small numbers of deaths with limited statistical power to detect anything but major increases in incidence. CONCLUSION: We found no consistent evidence that child suicide deaths increased during the COVID-19 pandemic although there was a possibility that they may have increased during the first UK lockdown. A similar peak was not seen during the following months, or the second lockdown.

Deaths in children and young people in England after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first pandemic year.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is rarely fatal in children and young people (CYP, <18 years old), but quantifying the risk of death is challenging because CYP are often infected with SARS-CoV-2 exhibiting no or minimal symptoms. To distinguish between CYP who died as a result of SARS-CoV-2 infection and those who died of another cause but were coincidentally infected with the virus, we undertook a clinical review of all CYP deaths with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test from March 2020 to February 2021. The predominant SARS-CoV-2 variants were wild-type and Alpha. Here we show that, of 12,023,568 CYP living in England, 3,105 died, including 61 who were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of these deaths, 25 were due to SARS-CoV-2 infection (mortality rate, two per million), including 22 due to coronavirus disease 2019-the clinical disease associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection-and 3 were due to pediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2. In total, 99.995% of CYP with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test survived. CYP older than 10 years, Asian and Black ethnic backgrounds and comorbidities were over-represented in SARS-CoV-2-related deaths compared with other CYP deaths. These results are important for guiding decisions on shielding and vaccinating children. New variants might have different mortality risks and should be evaluated in a similar way.

Child mortality in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Using the National Child Mortality Database (NCMD), this work aims to investigate and quantify the characteristics of children dying of COVID-19, and to identify any changes in rate of childhood mortality during the pandemic. DESIGN: We compared the characteristics of the children who died in 2020, split by SARS-CoV-2 status. A negative binomial regression model was used to compare mortality rates in lockdown (23 March-28 June), with those children who died in the preceding period (6 January-22 March), as well as a comparable period in 2019. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Children (0-17 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Characteristics and number of the children who died in 2020, split by SARS-CoV-2 status. RESULTS: 1550 deaths of children between 6th of January and 28 June 2020 were notified to the NCMD; 437 of the deaths were linked to SARS-CoV-2 virology records, 25 (5.7%) had a positive PCR result. PCR-positive children were less likely to be white (37.5% vs 69.4%, p=0.003) and were older (12.2 vs 0.7 years, p<0.0006) compared with child deaths without evidence of the virus. All-cause mortality rates were similar during lockdown compared with both the period before lockdown in 2020 (rate ratio (RR) 0.93 (0.84 to 1.02)) and a similar period in 2019 (RR 1.02 (0.92 to 1.13)). CONCLUSIONS: There is little to suggest that there has been excess mortality during the period of lockdown. The apparent higher frequency of SARS-CoV-2-positive tests among children from black, Asian and minority ethnic groups is consistent with findings in adults. Ongoing surveillance is essential as the pandemic continues.